5 June 2013

The Perfect Business

The perfect business. Is there such a thing at all?

Do you know of a business which might qualify as a perfect business?

Oil? FMCG? Trading?

No... these may be good businesses, but there is one which is much better.

And that business is.... Insurance.


insurance business
The Best Business to be in??

You might not subscribe to our views and say that an insurer has to pay 'Sum Assured' to everyone when they die. And it is right to assume that everyone does die. :-) You are right. But there is another thing which forms the basis of life insurnce industry. Everyone does not die together (unless and until there is an extinction-level natural calamity or something similar).

But why is it that we consider insurance to be a really good business?

Assuming that an insurance company has 1000 customers (In reality, an insurer like LIC has crores of customers). Now suppose that every year, each of the customer pays a premium of 10,000 rupees. Now these customer (generally) don't expect to recieve anything in return, till the time they are alive.

Now, if you think rationally, what insurance company is getting here is interest free loan from its customers!! Agreed that this money has to be returned when the customer dies. But as already said, everyone does not plan to die together. So most of the people will remain alive for most of their policy tenure. The insurance company keeps getting this money every year, for decades. In between, a few people might die here or there. The dependents of these people would be paid their dues and life would move on. But, most people prefer not to buy plain term insurances and go for seemingly more customer friendly policies like moneyback and endowment ones. But, if you do a simple back of the envelope calculation, you would understand that such customer friendly poloicies are only friendly for agents and insurance companies. These are the policies which effectively give returns between 4-6% in case you survive the policy tenure. But we will take this issue in another post.

So if we had to put it plainly, an insurance business keeps collecting premiums from its customers, who in return get a promise that their family would be taken care of in case they are not there. But insurance company uses this money to earn hadnsome returns (even if you consider 8.5%, it is handsome when compared to above mentioned 4-6%). Now, these premiums are interest free deposits which the company gets. Customers wont ask for it till the time they are alive. You just need to have some liquidity to pay of for few customer deaths. That anyways can be funded by new money being collected from new polcies. There is no need to liquidate the existing investments. Also, the insurance company has an enormous and ever-growing pool of funds which can be use for purchasing more money making assets.

Now tell us, which other business is so perfect? :-)

Very little capital expenditure. People hand you over their money. You dont have to pay interest on it. You can keep and invest that money for decades. When there is a need to return the money, new funds coming in continously, can be diverted to fulfill such requirements. No need to liquidate you older money-making assets. Perfect. :-)

And if you have had a little interest in Warren Buffett's life, you would know how he used this insurance business to become one of the richest person on earth. He once remarked -
“Berkshire Hathaway's insurance operations deliver costless capital that funds myriad other opportunities. This business produces 'float' – money that doesn't belong to us, but that we get to invest. The float comes into being because insurers get to collect premiums long before claims have to be paid. Its a liability without due dates attached to it."
Perfect. Isn't it?
Do you know of other such near-perfect businesses??



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30 May 2013

If you are a Infosys shareholder, then you should read this...

Disclosures: No positions in Infosys.

Sometime back, Infosys came out with its Annual Report. And since we had no positions in the company, materially speaking, we were not affected by it. But since Infy has a lot of negative sentiment going around it, we were curious too see what management had say about it.


infosys future
What does the future hold for this company?

So out of curiosity, we went through company's annual report (link). And there was something in the report, which caught our eyes.

Nothing to worry. :-)

With all negatives news surrounding the company, we felt something different. Now, 'felt' can be a dangerous word in stock markets. So please beware. We may be getting emotional with this one. So, you take your own call and decide for yourself. All the underlined words in rest of this post show that we might be getting a little irrational and emotional after reading things in a document (Annual Report), which is prepared by people who are incentivized to portray a good picture of the company (!!!)

So this is what we felt...

Everyone thinks that Infosys is down and out. Almost everyone we had a chat with felt that it was founders decision of playing passing-the-parcel with CEOs position, that was the main reason behind company's downfall. Many question Infosys's conservative attitude too. And to be frank, we don't really understand what really went wrong with the company. Was it one of these reasons or a combination of all of them? We don't know.

But while going through company's Annual Report, we really liked a few things which current CEO, Shibulal had to say...

Changes are tough and they take time to show results. The company seems to be making changes which are hurting it in the short term. But these may put company on a better growth trajectory in the long term. Company's management is being honest that they too are anxious about Infy's current status. The CEO went on to say that they 'are listening and learning' from their good and bad choices. And, situations like these 'do cause the rare moment of self-doubt.' Now, how many CEOs are ready to admit such a thing?

We don't understand IT sector well. Hence we are not the right people to listen to. :-) But we do like the honest and tell-all approach which Infy is following. And with all the cash that company has accumulated (Rs 24,000 Crores plus), we feel that it may only be a matter of time before something interesting might take place. It may be something related to their Transformation 3.0 or something totally diffferent. This is just our view or rather a gut feeling.

If you do understand this sector well, we would really appreciate if you could give some inputs on the issue for benefit of the readers.

Waiting to hear from you guys...


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24 May 2013

Top 23 Large Cap Indian Stocks

We are students of the Capital Protection School of Thought*, which is built on the thought that "Return OF Capital is more important than Return ON Capital".

* There is no such school in real life :-)

You might feel that if our prime motive is capital protection, then why are we entering stock markets? You are right. Stock markets are risky places where chances of losses increase in direct proportion to chances of achieving higher returns. There are n number of other safe investment instruments like bonds, PPF, NSC, Bank Deposits, Recurring Deposits, gold, etc. But we must be aware of their limitations too. Historically, these asset classes have failed to beat equities in the long run. So though we hate losing money and want to stick with rock solid and safe instruments, the fact remains that we cant ignore equities.

So, if you are in sync with what we just said OR if you consider yourself to be an average investor, incapable of giving a lot of time to stock analysis, it makes sense to only go for proven businesses in stock markets. These are companies which have been there and done that. They are businesses which are capable of weathering economic, political, sectoral storms. These are large businesses. These are large cap companies.

We always had an attraction for large cap stocks available at cheap prices. So when Morgan Stanley came out with a list of large Indian businesses with market cap greater than $10 Billion, we couldn't help getting attracted towards it. :-)

The guys at Morgan Stanley have taken these 23 ten billion dollar companies and ranked them on following parameters -
  • Strong 5 year trailing ROE and earnings growth
  • High forward change in ROE and earnings
  • Depth & breadth of consensus earnings revision
We don't know the exact details of the rating/ranking mechanism, so we can't comment on the same. This list is a work of Morgan Stanley. You should not take this post as an endorsement by Stable Investor about these stocks or Morgan Stanley's approach. Do have a look at this list. And if you do invest your money in any of these stocks, that would be at your own risk. :-)

india top large cap stocks
India's Top 23 Large Cap Stocks

Disclosure: We do hold some of these stocks in our personal portfolios.


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