You are a long-term investor and your job is to stay invested. Over the long-term, the markets reward discipline. So keep calm. Don’t start taking action just because you are bored and not getting a 12% return this year. Don’t be fooled into taking unnecessary actions.
But unless and until you are a superhuman trader who can pick the correct stock on a daily basis, its almost impossible to become rich enough, overnight. This is assuming you had to start from Zero. Then there is this risk of using leverage in stock markets.
But this post is more about a very simple, but difficult to answer question which was posted by Seth Godin in one of his recent short posts (link).
Though post is more general and not specific to money, it still is applicable to our world of investing.
And I quote what Godin writes…
A simple question with an answer that’s difficult to embrace.
- Short-term: Less than or equal to three-years
- Long-term: Greater than three-years
So don’t forget. Don’t invest for short term and don’t save for long term. 🙂
|Correlation | Investing based on 200DMA & 5 Year Returns (CAGR)|
- In regions marked P, Q, R, S, & T, the index was trading 20% lower than its 200DMA. And as red graph in these regions indicates, returns have always been in positive territory.
- Please note that it is assumed that investor is investing in index as a whole. A similar graph drawn for individual stocks may show different patterns and would depend on businesscycles of the sector.
- Region A (i.e. Year 2000-2004) is a possible outlier in this analysis. During this period, India was in long term secular bull market and as evident from the graph, relation between 5Y-CAGR and distance of index from its 200DMA is not evident. Returns continue to be positive even though Distance from 200DMA continuously switches between positive and negative territories.
Though 200DMA is generally considered as a tool to be used by traders, it can very well be a potent tool in the hands of a long term investor who wants to time his entries in the market.